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                Windsurfing at Palo Alto in SF Bay in May 2009  S&P500 Ten Year Trailing Total Returns
Trailing 10 year compound annual total return for S&P500
                Windsurfing at Coyote Point November 2009
Chart of Average Annual CPI Inflation Rate

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November 29, 2012: S&P500 Ten Year Trailing Returns   Trailing 10-Yr Compound Annual Total Return (CATR) for  the Standard and Poor`s 500 Index. from http://www.zerohedge.com1        
SPY Closing prices with dividends:  11/29/12 = $142.12  - 11/29/02= $77.26
Total Return = (142.12-77.26) / 77.26 x 100% = 83.95%;  CATR = 6.28%   =   Where we are today on graph
 Trailing 10 year compound annual total return for S&P500
  • Data in chart includes reinvested dividends which add significantly to index returns.
  • If you eyeball the chart, the average rate of return including dividends is between 8% and 10%.
  • Only 16 of the past 176 years has the market had a lower 10-year rolling return than it did at the start of 2012.
  • Over the last 100 years, the average annual inflation rate was 3.23%.  Stocks offered very good 10-year returns after the average 10 year compound annual return fell below 3.23%.
  • Likewise, good times to sell or at least take profits (what I do) were when the rolling 10-yr return exceeded 12%.
Average Annual Inflation Rate Chart by Decade

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note 1.  Source: Zero Hedge: Marc Faber's Chart Porn
Average Annual Inflation Rate by Decade data courtesy of

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