KirkLindstrom.com - Articles - 2013 Blog - Average Stock Market Gain After a Major Bear Market
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                Windsurfing at Palo Alto in SF Bay in May 2009
Average Stock Market Gain After a Bear Market
 
Chart of Average Stock Market Gain After a Major Bear Market
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                Windsurfing at Coyote Point November 2009
Charts and price quotes for DJIA and DIA

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November 27, 2013:  This chart shows the percent gain and duration in trading days of each bull market following a major bear market of 30% or more.

Of course, what Chartoftheday neglects to mention is the DOW pays a dividend which adds to return.  If you bought the DOW via its ETF (exchange traded fund) called DIA and reinvested the dividends it earned,  then the gains would be even higher than those shown in this graphic

From Chartoftheday.com1
The Dow just made another all-time record high. To provide some further perspective to the current Dow rally, all major market rallies of the last 113 years are plotted on today's chart. Each dot represents a major stock market rally as measured by the Dow with the majority of rallies referred to by a label which states the year in which the rally began. For today's chart, a rally is being defined as an advance that follows a 30% decline (i.e. a major bear market). As today's chart illustrates, the Dow has begun a major rally 13 times over the past 113 years which equates to an average of one rally every 8.7 years. It is also interesting to note that the duration and magnitude of each rally correlated fairly well with the linear regression line (gray upward sloping line). As it stands right now, the current Dow rally that began in March 2009 (blue dot labeled you are here) would be classified as well below average in both duration and magnitude. However, the magnitude of the current post-financial crisis rally has now reached median status -- its magnitude is greater than six and less than six Dow rallies since 1900.
Chart of the DJIA Adjusted for Inflation

Charts and price quotes for DJIA and DIA

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Note 1.  Source: Chart of the Day  "Journalists and bloggers may post the above free Chart of the Day on their website as long as the chart is unedited and full credit is given with a live link to Chart of the Day at http://www.chartoftheday.com."

Charts and current price quote for Crude Oil Prices

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