|Bob Brinker's Follow-up QQQ Advice
Bob Brinker's follow-up guidance for his horrible QQQ trade.
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Updated January 2, 2015: Detailed summary of Bob Brinker’s QQQ Follow-up Advice
Next follows a summary of Bob Brinker’s “follow-up advice given in his Marketimer (MT) Newsletter. I show the date given on each monthly Marketimer newsletter along with the price of QQQ:
November 6, 2000 MT: QQQ=$81.00 "Subscribers seeking to establish positions at optimum price levels [editor highlight] should, if possible, accumulate QQQ shares at prices in the range between the low-70's and mid-70's as opportunities arise in the near-term. In our view, gains off the closing NASDAQ low point have the potential to exceed 20% by a wide margin. This is especially true if recent NASDAQ lows are retested during the month of November.
December 3, 2000 MT: QQQ=$64.00 Talks about 1990 and how NASDAQ bottomed, then went 9.7% lower before a big rally. Says "In our view, the exceptional oversold [I thought he didn't use TA?] readings registered in the Nasdaq indexes in late-November are a very positive development. … the counter trend rally phase has the potential to carry the Nasdaq indexes as much as 40% to 50% above their late-November closing levels over the next three to six months. This rally has the potential to extend well into the first quarter, and possibly the second quarter of 2001. [snip] Short-term price weakness in the Nasdaq-100... in the 2800's or lower is viewed as an attractive buying opportunity…
January's 2001 MT; QQQ=$62.44; "We continue to view short-term price weakness in Nasdaq 100 shares...Clearly, the Nasdaq indexes have moved lower than we anticipated in recent weeks. However, this has not altered our expectation that a major bear market rally will develop going forward....gains for Nasdaq100 index of up to 50% or more measured from Jan 2 low. Recommended within guidelines listed on pages one and two (20 to 50% of cash reserves)."
February 2001 MT; QQQ=$61.55; The timeline for the NASDAQ led countertrend rally remains three to six months as measured from the starting point on January 3.
March2001 MT; QQQ=$46.70; In our view, the probabilities favor a three to six month bear market rally phase beginning shortly.
April 2001 MT; QQQ=$37.40; "We expect the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 index to stage a significant recovery over the next several months."
May 2001 MT; QQQ=$48.05; "We continue to believe the Nasdaq has the potential to recover in the months ahead." This is the LAST TIME he said the Nasdaq would rally in the months ahead.
June 2001 MT; QQQ=$46.05; For subscribers with a position in Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ) shares, we recommend holding these shares for future recovery... ... He NOW says to hold until the next cyclical bull market
July 2001 MT; QQQ=$46.00; We also recommend subscribers with a position in Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ) shares hold for price recovery.
August 2001 MT; QQQ=$43; "We also recommend subscribers with a position in Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ) shares hold for recovery...
September 2001 MT; QQQ=$35.47; XLK-QQQ Swap: "Making this transaction in taxable accounts for tax purposes is consistent with our recommendation to hold QQQ shares for price recovery over time...The switch into XLK...is solely for the purpose of realizing short-term tax losses for current or future use..."
October 2001 MT; QQQ=$28.82 "We continue our long-standing policy of not selling into weakness and we recommend subscribers with a position in Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares hold these shares as we expect them to trade at much higher levels..."
November 2001 MT; QQQ=$35; "long standing policy of not selling into weakness… (QQQ) hold these shares as we expect them to trade at much higher levels during the next cyclical bull market.
December 01; QQQ=$40.83; "...we recommend holding in anticipation of higher price levels during the next cyclical bull market..."
January 02 MT; QQQ=$41.67; "we prefer to hold existing positions in the expectation that the next cyclical bull..." [Note that QQQs now up 44% from Oct. 2001 MT! We finally got a 4 month CT rally.]
February 02 MT; QQQ=$36.92; "..hold these shares for recovery during the next cyclical bull..."
March 02 MT; QQQ=$35.74; "...can hold these shares in anticipation of much higher prices in the next cyclical bull..."
April 02 MT; QQQ=$36.06: "We are also retaining our hold rating..."
May '02 MT; QQQ=$31.56: "We are also retaining our hold rating."
June '02 MT; QQQ=$30.04: "We are maintaining a hold rating."
July 5, '02 MT; QQQ=$26.34: "We continue our policy of not selling into weakness, and recommend those with a position in Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares hold for higher prices during the next cyclical bull market."
August 8, '02 MT; QQQ=$22.25 : "We are maintaining our hold rating on Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares…"
September 2, '02 MT; QQQ=$23.49; "We are maintaining our hold rating on Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) shares in anticipation of much higher prices for the shares in the next cyclical bull market.
October 5, '02 MT; QQQ=20.75; hold. No commentary. [A new low for QQQs, down 75% since first recommended for up to 1/3rd of the portfolio.]
Nov 2002 MT; QQQ=$25.90; hold. We recommend holding existing stock market positions at current levels, along with ... QQQ."
Dec 2002 MT; QQQ=$28.00; hold; " Marketimer recommends retaining existing equity market holdings at this time. This includes … QQQ."
Jan 2003 MT: QQQ=$25.68; hold. No commentary.
Feb 2003 MT: QQQ=$24.49; hold. No commentary.
March 2003 MT: QQQ=$24.49; hold. Showing good relative strength vs S&P500 so far this year.
March 11, 2003 Bulletin; QQQ=$24.06; BUY QQQ or ROYCX.
|==> For more, read "Detailed summary of Bob Brinker’s QQQ Advice"|
==> Discuss Bob Brinker's QQQ advice:
Isn't it odd how Bob Brinker kept QQQ out of the model portfolios on the way down and only added QQQs at the bottom?
Some have said it is only because he recommends mutual funds for his accounts, but it is clear in his bulletin that you can use a Rydex OTC fund and QQQ interchangeably.
What do you think? Discuss it at the Bob Brinker Fan Club Blog QQQ Article Update Comments Section.
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For more conservative investors who have no interest in individual stocks, I co-edit "The Retirement Advisor" where our most aggressive model portfolio is slightly less aggressive then the "core conservative portfolio" in Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter." For more explanation, see "Kirk's Two Investment Letters - Which is Best for You?"
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