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Michael Lombardi Predictions
Summary of Critical Warning Number Six
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February 28, 2012:   Last week one of my long-term subscribers (since the beginning in 1998) sent me this review of a video called "Michael Lombardi's Critical Warning Number Six." The link to it no longer works.... it seems to have been a promotion for pay from a website that is now expired.  I found the video elsewhere and give a link to it and my own comments here.
"This advertisement has been sent from to our Members on behalf of a third-party advertiser."
Here is the highlight of the printed text to attract new subscribers:
Dear Reader:

Something very big will happen in America within the next 180 days. It will be more devastating than the credit crisis of 2008. For most people, it will hit them like a brick wall.
 (Kirk's Note:  I calculate that works out to by the end of August 2012)
It will touch Americans harder and deeper than anything else we've seen since the Great Depression. Michael Lombardi feels so strongly about this, he's decided to present his "Critical Warning Number Six" in a new video.  (FEAR SELLS! The video tries to scare you into buying a $300 investment product.)

In case you're not familiar with him...

Michael Lombardi has been widely recognized as predicting five major economic events over the past 10 years. In 2002, he started advising his readers to buy gold–related investments when gold traded under $300 an ounce.

In 2006, he begged his readers to get out of the housing market...before it plunged. He was among the first (back in late 2006) to predict that the U.S. economy would be in a recession by late 2007. Michael correctly predicted the crash in the stock market of 2008 and early 2009. Finally, Michael turned bullish on stocks in March of 2009 and rode the bear market rally from a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 6,440 on March 9, 2009, to 12,876 on May 2, 2011—a gain of 99%.

I call Michael's new video controversial because most people will not like what he has to say...they will find it hard to believe until they see all the facts as Michael presents them.

Michael's first five predictions have already come true. Now he's issuing Critical Warning Number Six. I urge you to be among the first to see this new video here now.

Yours truly, Wendy Potter, BA
Managing Editor - Lombardi Publishing Corporation

I found the video on his own website here. 
Update August 3, 2012:  Today we were asked by to remove the active link to the video
The link no longer works and they are still saying "something very big will happen in America in the next 180 days."  If your timing is wrong, why not delete the original and try again....
  This is my subscriber's February 2012 review of the video.
  • Dow going to March 2009 lows in the next two months(Feb 28 + 2 months = April 28, 2012)
  • Euro collapsing
  • Gold continues up, buy mining stocks.
  • Buy ETF that goes up when market goes down.
  • Inflation coming.
  • Recession coming, Part II, worse than the first part.
I asked via email if Michael Lombardi had a published investment record like I publish here.  I will update their answer here when I get it. (no reply....) My friend and subscriber said he didn't know.  Lombardi's website claims his readership is 200,000!   I was unable to find a link to his record.  You would think that if someone had a good long term investment record that they would publish it like I do...

I watched Lombardi's video and what he says makes a lot of sense playing on major investor fears. Here is his basic premise:
  1. The devaluation of the U.S. dollar that started in early 2009 will accelerate as the U.S. economy deteriorates—he will show you how to make money from this.  (Kirk says If you believe this, then short the US dollar of buy a currency like the Swiss Frank that is stable.)

  2. Gold prices will continue to rise—he will show you how to make money from this..  (Kirk says If you believe this, then buy gold and gold mining stocks.  This is not my advice, but it is what you do if you think gold is going higher.  As of Feb. 28, 2012 I only own token amounts of gold.... )

    Gold - Spot Price 
    Day        Date       Open       High        Low      Close      Volume
    Tue 28-Feb-2012    1770.20    1792.70    1767.00    1784.70      150203 
    Mon 27-Feb-2012    1776.80    1781.00    1762.60    1769.70      125579 
  3. The euro is as done as the U.S. dollar—he will show you how to make money from this. (Kirk says If you believe this, then you can short the Euro)

  4. Inflation will become a real problem in America—he will show you how to make money from this. (Kirk says If you believe this, then buy TIPS, iBonds, Gold, etc..   FWIW, in my newsletter, I have zero gold investments at this time.)

  5. The stock market will ultimately test its lows of March 2009, bringing the Dow Jones down 46% from where it sits today—he will show you how to make money from this. (Kirk says If you believe this, then short SPY or buy a leveraged ETF that shorts the market.  I think Michael Lombardi is wrong and I am long SPY. )

He wants to sell you his reports.  I would not subscribe to an investment letter unless it published a 10-year or longer record like I publish here.    His premise is the US is bankrupt from too much spending and unsustainable debt without any new developments on the horizon to create jobs and get us out of the hole.   Of course, those who follow President Obama and the Democrats believe deficit spending on things like renewable energy to become energy self-sufficient is the new development that will create jobs and wealth in the US.   Most of the rest of us think we'll somehow find a way to muddle through like we always do.

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His video says the market will go to its March 2009 lows in the next two months (the DOW is currently at 13,000) and he has a "secret stock" to buy that will go up about 5 times if the market goes down as he predicts in the next two months.
Update August 3, 2012:  This shows what the DOW has done since the the start of 2009.  Obviously, today the DOW is higher.  Is that why they asked me today to remove the link to their web site video that no longer works?

Click for More DOW Charts
It sounds like Lombardi has been in Gold since 2002 which has been a great investment but the run of gold from $250 to nearly $2,000 per ounce ($1,917.90) might already price in this "news."  See my chart:

Gold Prices

Update December 3, 2012:   "Dow/Gold Ratio Remains Low On Historical Basis"  My article says I own no gold and recommend SPY:

"I prefer SPY for the S&P 500, over DIA because it is more diversified. I agree with Bill Gates that stocks offer tremendous value now. It doesn't mean they won't go lower and give even better value in the short term, but long term I expect they will outperform gold and bonds."

Maybe Michael Lombardi is right but just has his timing off.... To be honest, I don't like it when people use fear and greed to sell products.  I prefer boring investment strategies where the only excitement is in the "explore portfolio."  If Lombardi is right, then you can save the cost of his newsletter and buy gold via its EFT GLD and short SPY, the ETFs for the S&P500.   If the market drops to March 2009 lows as Lombardi predicts, then you will double your money on your SPY short in 2 months!  (Again, I own no gold in my investment portfolios as of February 28, 2012 and only hold a tiny amount of gold as jewelry and coins.  I think Michael Lombardi is wrong and  I recommend the stocks and mutual funds in my newsletter portfolios.)

Current quotes and charts for:  SPY - DIA -  GoldGLD

I used the gains in my own stock portfolio these past years to "semi retire" in 1998 as I invested time to build up my online income from free articles, commissions for some products I recommend and selling newsletters.     You can read about my success in this May 9, 2007 Los Altos Town Crier  Newspaper Article (online version & pdf version.)
Long Term Results that Speak for Themselves
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