- Articles - 2012 - Marc Faber, author of the Boom, Gloom & Doom newsletter, Recession Prediction
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Marc Faber Global Recession Prediction
"Recession to Start in Q4 or Early 2013"
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August 24, 2012:  Yesterday Marc Faber, publisher of "The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report1," told CNBC's "Closing Bell" there is still a 100% chance the world heads into a recession.  Odds of Global Recession Are 100%: Marc Faber
  • “Europe is already in recession,” he said. “Germany is still growing very, very slightly, but is likely to go into recession soon.”
  • “The U.S. economy has decelerated and I don’t see much growth in the next six to 12 months”

This  was an reiteration of his May 25, 2012 CNBC appearance where he told CNBC's "Fast Money Halftime Report" that he expected the recession to begin by late 2012 or early 2013:

  • “I think we could have a global recession either in Q4 or early 2013."
  • When asked what were the odds, Faber replied, "100%."
Faber said on May 25 that the stock markets could rally first, which it has, but he thought the rally would come from Greece exiting the Euro:
  • “I think the market would be relieved if finally Greece exited the euro. There would be some clarity. Although it wouldn’t be good for banks and insurance (stocks) in general I think markets are oversold and with an exit – markets would rally.”
S&P500 Chart
Faber seems to agree with ECRI that there is little the Federal Reserve or other policy makers can do to avert this recession:
Profits of US corporations are at record highs but Faber doesn't expect this to continue:

  • “The corporate sector has recovered remarkably since the trough in earnings in 2009 and we are at record high earnings”
  • “Corporate profits will disappoint over the next 12 to 18 months.”

Note 1. Gloom Boom & Doom report:
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