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 SOX Index Seasonality Chart
Historical Seasonality Chart  for the SOX Semiconductor Index
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April 4, 2013
The Semiconductor Index (called the SOX) has made three major tops in March during the past 19 years.  For this work, I define a major top as any top followed by a 20% or more decline without a higher high.  

I list my  Key Observations below this first chart   -   List of Semiconductor Exchange Traded Funds

SOX Seasonal Chart
Key Observations:
  1. This chart above shows the SOX index and the S&P500 (SPX) index with a blue line marking every April 1.

  2. The years for these March tops were 2000, 2006, 2011 and 2012 with last year's (2012) decline coming in at 21%.

    SOX 2 year chart

  3. The SOX index "paused" in March/April 1997, 1998 and 1999 but it was significantly higher a year later.

  4. Going back to April 1, 1995, the SOX was higher a year later nine times, marked by green arrows, and it was lower a year later nine times, marked by red arrows.  Thus, you could flip a coin to guess if it will be higher or lower on March 31, 2014.

List of Kirk's 2013 Articles  - Semiconductor ETF List

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Disclaimer:  The information contained in this web site is not intended to constitute financial advice, and is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security. This blog is strictly informational and educational and is not to be construed as any kind of financial advice, investment advice or legal advice. Copyright © 2011 Kirk Lindstrom. Note: "CORE & Explore®" was coined by and is a registered trademark of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.