KirkLindstrom.com - Articles - 2013 - SOX Seasonality Chart - Graph of Semiconductor Index
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  SOX Index Seasonality Chart
Historical Seasonality Chart  for the SOX Semiconductor Index 		Kirk Windsurfing at Coyote Point November 2009
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April 4, 2013: The Semiconductor Index (called the SOX) has made three major tops in March during the past 19 years.  For this work, I define a major top as any top followed by a 20% or more decline without a higher high.  

I list my  Key Observations below this first chart   -   List of Semiconductor Exchange Traded Funds

SOX Seasonal Chart
Key Observations:
  1. This chart above shows the SOX index and the S&P500 (SPX) index with a blue line marking every April 1.

  2. The years for these March tops were 2000, 2006, 2011 and 2012 with last year's (2012) decline coming in at 21%.

    SOX 2 year chart

  3. The SOX index "paused" in March/April 1997, 1998 and 1999 but it was significantly higher a year later.

  4. Going back to April 1, 1995, the SOX was higher a year later nine times, marked by green arrows, and it was lower a year later nine times, marked by red arrows.  Thus, you could flip a coin to guess if it will be higher or lower on March 31, 2014.

List of Kirk's 2013 Articles  - Semiconductor ETF List

Note 1.  Source: stockcharts.com
 
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