KirkLindstrom.com - Articles - 2014 Blog - Real Price of S&P Composite with Dividends Re-invested 1870-2013
Kirk Windsurfing at Palo Alto in SF Bay in May 2009
  Real Price of S&P Comp - 1870 to 2013
Historical Data with Dividends Reinvested from 1870 to 2013 		Kirk Windsurfing at Coyote Point November 2009
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January 4, 2014: Below is a graph showing the real (inflation adjusted) return of the S&P composite with dividends re-invested on a log scale from 1870 through December 2013.  Key features:
  1. The middle line is a best fit of the data
  2. Real Price means price is adjusted for inflation.
  3. The S&P Composite 1500 (definition) combines three indexes: the S&P 500, the S&P MidCap 400, and the S&P SmallCap 600 to cover approximately 90% of the U.S. market capitalization. 
  4. The graph uses the same Robert Shiller data that I use to compute and update a Shiller P/E10 graph vs. 10-year Treasury bond rates in my monthly newsletter. 
Click Images to enlarge
 

P/E10 or CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings) ratio vs 10-Yr T-Bill Rates
Excerpt from 7 of my January 2014 newsletter:
Data (updated 12/21/13) courtesy of Robert Shiller, Yale Department of Economics http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm   In Schiller's modified P/E, the denominator is not current earnings per share but average inflation-adjusted earnings over the trailing 10 years. This modified ratio, sometimes called P/E10, or CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings) ratio, is said to have better forecasting record than the simple P/E ratio.  I like tracking this as it gives a different opinion than the more bullish Fed Model.

Note 1.  Source: Estimating Stock Market Returns to 2020 and Beyond: Update
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