|October 5, 2011. This is a
the weekly Investors Intelligence Survey Bulls
minus Bears Sentiment data from 1988 to today
plotted against the weekly DOW (Dow Jones Industrial
with yesterday's close.
Intelligence Survey“ or IIS is one of the oldest
sentiment indicators used today. Charts of the
Intelligence Survey (IIS) “Bulls over Bulls plus
Bears” versus the
market are key tools for stock market technical
sentiment. The IIS began in January 1963 by A.W.
Cohen and has
been published every week ever since.
The IIS questions stock-market newsletter writers once
a week to see if
they were bullish or bearish on the stock markets in
Newsletter writers have a large following as a group
and are thus
considered “market experts.“ Cohen thought he
could survey these
"experts" to find out when it was best to be long or
markets. Before he started, Cohen expected the
best time to be
long would be when the most advisers were bullish.
Cohen was surprised
to find out that the newsletter writers, just like
and speculators, were usually wrong at major turning
Cohen found the best time to go long the stock markets
was not when the
most advisers were bullish, but when they were
bearish! Cohen’s IIS
survey turned out to be a wonderful contrarian