KirkLindstrom.com - Articles -2016 - Citigroup's Panic - Euphoria Model
Kirk Lindstrom on Cover of Timer Digest Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model
 Citi's Measure of Investor Sentiment For Stocks
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April 3, 2016:  The Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model looks at investor sentiment.  These charts show data back to 1987.  They show sentiment is up significantly from where I wrote on Feb. 11, 2016 "With SPY Down 14% Again, Sentiment Charts Suggest Another Tradable Low" but still remains well below historical levels as the charts below show.

 
Today in Barron's Weekly update of "INVESTOR SENTIMENT READINGS" for April 4, 2016, they show the data for the past year in this chart. This is a good recovery in sentiment in Citi's Panic/Euphoria Model but the charts below show it remains well below historical averages.
  Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model
The text reads: "The panic/euphoria model is a gauge of investor sentiment.  It identifies "Panic" and "Euphoria" levels which are statistically driven buy and sell signals for the broader market.  Historically, a reading below panic supports a better than 95% likelihood that stock prices will be higher one year later, while euphoria levels generate a better than 70% probability of stock prices being lower one year later.  Source: Citigroup Investment Research - US Equity Strategy"




Citigroup's Panic - Euphoria Model from 1987 through today.
On March 5, 2016, Callum Thomas tweeted this graph

Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model
On March 10, 2016 John Ross Crooks III posted this chart in his blog "This Historic Chart (Still) Foreshadows a Stock Market Surge"
Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model
That looks to be somewhat of a lagging indicator but it still has a good, long term message.  For shorter indicators, see my Feb. 11, 2016 article "With SPY Down 14% Again, Sentiment Charts Suggest Another Tradable Low."

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