Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model Citi's Measure of Investor Sentiment For Stocks |
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Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter Wins the April 3, 2016: The Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model looks at investor sentiment. These charts show data back to 1987. They show sentiment is up significantly from where I wrote on Feb. 11, 2016 "With SPY Down 14% Again, Sentiment Charts Suggest Another Tradable Low" but still remains well below historical levels as the charts below show. |
Today in Barron's Weekly
update of "INVESTOR SENTIMENT READINGS" for April 4, 2016, they show the data for the past year in this chart. This is a good recovery in
sentiment in Citigroup's Panic/Euphoria Model but the charts below show it
remains well below historical averages.
The text reads: "The panic/euphoria model is a gauge of investor sentiment. It identifies "Panic" and "Euphoria" levels which are statistically driven buy and sell signals for the broader market. Historically, a reading below panic supports a better than 95% likelihood that stock prices will be higher one year later, while euphoria levels generate a better than 70% probability of stock prices being lower one year later. Source: Citigroup Investment Research - US Equity Strategy"
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Citigroup's Panic - Euphoria Model from 1987 through today. | ||
On March 10, 2016 John Ross Crooks III posted this chart in his blog "This Historic Chart (Still) Foreshadows a Stock Market Surge" That looks to be somewhat of a lagging indicator but it still has a good, long term message. For shorter indicators, see my Feb. 11, 2016 article "With SPY Down 14% Again, Sentiment Charts Suggest Another Tradable Low." Make sure you read my articles: |
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