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Bob Brinker's horrible advice that he doesn't count on his official record.
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Updated January 2, 2015:        Detailed summary of Bob Brinker’s QQQ Advice

I was a big fan of the radio show, Moneytalk, hosted by Bob Brinker. For many years, Bob Brinker dispensed mostly excellent advice to callers about how to manage their money for the long term.

My only major disagreement with Bob Brinker is his belief he can time the market. If you examine some of his advice that he doesn’t let callers discuss on the radio, you find his advertised performance is far more “average” than he lets on.   I attribute this mostly to has "off the books" advice given in the newsletter that he uses to advertise his success when it works out but hides it when it goes badly.   The two biggest "off the books" areas of advice are
  1. His list of "Individual Issues" that is similar to my "Explore Portfolio" except Bob Brinker doesn't track the performance of his recommendations.
  2. His advice to buy and hold QQQ from October 2000 until October 2010 that subscribers know he wasn't going to use in the model portfolios until weeks AFTER he gave the advice to "act immediately." I believe that was because QQQ fell like a rock after he gave the advice so he decided to keep the advice off the books like his "individual issues" are off the books.  This despite clearly telling subscribers to raise cash with model portfolio money and wait for instructions on how to use it earlier that year.
His infamous “QQQ advice” is not the only blunder he has made, but the cover-up is one of his best given the percentage of his subscribers’ portfolios that was involved and the poor performance that resulted. 

Below is a detailed summary of the QQQQ controversy.

Brinker's NASDAQ 100 - QQQQ Counter trend Rally Advice
  • In Jan 2000 Brinker moved 60% of his equity portfolios to cash.
  • In August 2000 he moved another 5% to cash for a total of 65% in cash reserves.
  • He told subscribers to wait for instructions on how to use these cash reserves.
 If he had stayed there in cash, this move would have looked brilliant. But, the story is only beginning.

October 16, 2000: Brinker’s subscribers got a special bulletin vial USPS mail advising them to "Act Immediately" and buy QQQ in anticipation of a 2 to 4 months "counter trend rally" for a 20% or more gain. Confused callers to the Marketimer office were told by staff in the office that "Bob is comfortable with QQQ at $86."

Here are copies of actual letters sent to paid subscribers as well as those in the "BJ Group" who paid up to 2% a year for Bob Brinker and Sheldon Jacobs (the B&J) to manage their money. 

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Clearly the advice was meant to be taken with money raised from selling 65% of their portfolios to raise cash.

This is what happened to QQQ between the advice to buy and when Brinker added the cash reserves to his own model portfolios.  It shows the managed accounts at the BJ Group were not so lucky to not buy QQQ until they crashed. 
BJ Group Portfolio Performance

Clearly the Aggressive portfolio with QQQ suffered greatly giving back gains to 1998!  This is not the performance Bob Brinker advertises for his Marketimer newsletter....

==>   Read Bob Brinker's "Follow-up Guidance for the QQQ trade."
==>  Discuss Bob Brinker's QQQ advice:

Isn't it odd how Bob Brinker kept QQQ out of the model portfolios on the way down and only added QQQs at the bottom?

Some have said it is only because he recommends mutual funds for his accounts, but it is clear in his bulletin that you can use a Rydex OTC fund and QQQ interchangeably.

What do you think? Discuss it at the Bob Brinker Fan Club Blog QQQ Article Update Comments Section.

Discuss general investing on my Facebook group "Investing for the long-term."

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